Gold delivered exceptional performance over the third quarter, with the S&P GSCI Gold Spot index delivering a return in excess of 17%. Looking at its trailing twelve months, it’s done even better, up over 50% as of October 21st. Gold’s recent rally continues a multi-year uptrend that began in the aftermath of one of the most significant macro events in recent history: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On a rolling twelve-month basis, gold has consistently delivered positive returns going back to April 2022.
Gold stood out from the crowd
What makes gold’s recent performance so impressive is how it compares with other asset classes. Over the third quarter, gold outperformed every major asset by a wide margin. Looking at the trailing twelve-month (TTM) results, as of the time of writing, the comparable returns aren’t even close, beating major global equity indexes by an average of 35% and besting global fixed income indices by an average of more than 40%. Among major assets, only Bitcoin has delivered stronger returns over the past year. See the table for a breakdown of asset class performance.
| Asset Class Returns | Q3 2025 Return | YTD Returns as of 10/21/25 | Trailing 12 Months as of 10/21/25 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equities | |||
| Large Cap | 7.99% | 15.48% | 16.63% |
| Small Cap | 12.39% | 12.74% | 12.59% |
| Domestic Growth | 10.41% | 17.91% | 23.15% |
| Domestic Value | 5.63% | 12.33% | 9.05% |
| Int'l Developed Markets | 4.83% | 27.54% | 20.97% |
| Emerging Markets | 10.64% | 31.14% | 22.96% |
| REITs | 5.09% | 5.41% | 1.02% |
| Fixed Income | |||
| Intermediate-Term Bonds | 1.51% | 6.61% | 6.16% |
| Short-Term Bonds | 1.19% | 4.66% | 5.10% |
| High Yield | 2.54% | 7.30% | 7.77% |
| Int'l Bonds | 0.60% | 8.30% | 5.69% |
| Emerging Market Bonds | 4.39% | 11.76% | 10.97% |
| Bitcoin | 6.61% | 18.42% | 63.63% |
| Gold | 17.10% | 55.59% | 50.03% |
Data from Morningstar as of 10/30/25.
Putting gold’s performance in context
It’s important to note that while gold has been on a positive trend for several years, the magnitude of twelve-month returns has been increasing in recent months, and its current TTM return of 50% is the highest this cycle. How does it compare to historical performance? Gold’s current TTM return is approximately 1.75 standard deviations above its long-term average, meaning it has outperformed roughly 95% of all other twelve-month periods. Remarkably, gold has not posted a higher TTM return since September 1980, over 45 years ago. In short, gold’s recent performance is nothing short of extraordinary, especially for an asset with a market cap of $30 trillion.
Over the past 55 years, gold has become a widely accepted, investable asset with inflation-hedging properties that make it attractive to many investors. More unique to gold is its store of value quality, which makes it an attractive safe-haven asset in a chaotic world. This has been one of the major drivers of its recent performance as market sentiment has grown increasingly uneasy amid geopolitical and economic uncertainty. More specifically, gold has benefited from the Trump administration's tariff strategy, which has disrupted global trade relations, with China remaining the central source of uncertainty. Additionally, there are growing concerns over government deficits, fueled by ever-increasing debt, which has accelerated the so-called “dollar debasement trade,” prompting investors to rotate into hard assets like gold and bitcoin. Furthermore, gold has received an aggressive bid from global central banks, as countries like China, Poland, and India continue to add to their reserves. Lastly, the opportunity cost of holding gold is decreasing now that the Federal Reserve Bank has started cutting rates, making it more attractive on a relative basis.
What lies ahead
With gold at record highs, what is gold’s recent performance telling us? Could it be a warning of a brewing crisis? While that may be unlikely, there is precedent for gold acting as a leading indicator of financial stress. Such was the case during the Eurozone debt crisis (2010 to 2012), when growing concern over ballooning government deficits prompted investors to seek safety in gold, sending it to new heights. More recently, the run-up in gold could indicate an acceleration in the de-dollarization trend, led primarily by Russia and China, a move away from traditional financial systems. Largely in response to Western sanctions and the freezing of dollar-denominated assets after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, both nations have increasingly turned to gold as a politically neutral store of value.
Regardless of what lies ahead, we feel strongly that following a diversified investment approach remains the most reliable path forward. When gold and other diversifying assets —those with low correlations to traditional assets —are incorporated into a portfolio, investors can achieve broad market exposure while reducing overall risk. Gold has consistently proven its value as a safe-haven asset, reinforcing its role as an important diversifying asset class.
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