Strategas Research

Latest Strategas Research - 04/07/14

Examining the VIX data over the past 20 years suggests that volatility tends to move in secular fashion -- i.e. the relatively high level of volatility from 1998 to 2003 was bookended by relatively low levels of volatility in the mid-1990s and the mid-2000s. While this is undoubtedly less fun, such markets tend to give truly active managers a leg up.

03/18/14

The organization officially tasked with determining the start and end dates of the recessions – the National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts – has, unsurprisingly, a sophisticated and nuanced approach to coming to its conclusions on the matter. Historically, they have relied heavily, but not exclusively,on four time series: Industrial Production, Real Manufacturing and Trade Sales, Employment, and Real Personal Income Less Transfers. In each instance, the current economic recovery continues to disappoint.

02/11/14

U.S. real GDP in the U.S. rose +3.2% q/q AR in 4Q of 2013, and +1.9% for the year. The fourth quarter - which included the government shutdown -  saw boosts from consumer spending (which added +2.3% points) and investment (which added +0.6%). However, +0.4% of the investment boost was due to inventories. Trade added +1.3% and government subtracted -0.9%. The GDP price index rose +1.3% q/q AR, putting nominal growth at +4.6% for 4Q and +3.4% for 2013. This report suggests...

01/09/14

Highly accommodative monetary policy remains appropriate, especially given the labor market slack indicated by long-term unemployment and the drop in labor force participation. Three Fed members do not see an increase in the fed funds rate until 2016. So, despite the Fed tapering...